From Empires of Markets to Empires of Materials

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Global competition over resources has entered a new phase. What once defined imperial power—the control of territory or captive markets—has given way to something more fundamental: control over physical resources themselves. This shift becomes clear when we examine three strategic categories of commodities: rare earths, precious metals, and oil.

Historically, up through the Cold War, imperial power was built around the enclosure of markets. States competed over where goods were produced and where they were sold; colonies and spheres of influence functioned primarily as protected consumer bases. With the end of the Cold War and the advance of globalization, however, this model lost relevance. Free competition and international division of labor became the norm.

In this new order, China emerged as “the world’s factory,” absorbing manufacturing capacity, while the United States pivoted away from production toward digital technology and finance, maintaining hegemony through intellectual property, platforms, and capital markets. This arrangement, however, depended critically on the stability of global supply chains.

That assumption no longer holds. Geopolitical fragmentation, the pandemic, and the resurgence of resource nationalism have exposed the fragility of globalized production. As a result, today’s power competition has evolved into a three-stage contest: (1) manufacturing capability, (2) control of supply chains, and (3) dominance over the upstream physical resources that underpin both.

The first category of resources is industrial foundation materials, exemplified by rare earths. Neodymium, essential for EV motors and wind turbines, illustrates this clearly. China controls roughly 60% of global rare earth production and close to 90% of refining and processing capacity. Prices rose from around USD 40–50 per kilogram in 2015 to over USD 100/kg at their 2022 peak, and remain elevated at USD 70–80/kg in 2025. What matters is not price alone, but China’s control of the mines and physical supply at the very top of the value chain, giving it structural leverage over entire industries.

The second category is financial and strategic assets, represented by gold and silver. Gold prices have doubled over the past decade, rising from about USD 1,100 per ounce in 2015 to around USD 4,300 in 2024–2025, driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical risk, and renewed central bank accumulation.

Silver, supported by both investment demand and industrial uses such as solar panels and electronics, has risen from roughly USD 15 to USD 70 per ounce. These metals function as ultimate collateral in times of monetary and political uncertainty, making physical possession increasingly important.

Viewed together, these three categories reveal a profound shift in global power. Hegemony today is no longer defined primarily by market access or manufacturing scale, but by the ability to secure and control physical resources at the upstream end of supply chains. China holds a dominant position in rare earths; the United States retains strategic leverage in oil.

Seen in this light, the current tensions surrounding Venezuela are best understood as one manifestation of this new resource-based imperialism. Beneath the surface of political disputes lies a more basic struggle over ownership and control of what lies underground. The unit of power in the global system is no longer the state alone, but the physical resources that sustain modern economies.

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